Doomsday scenarios about when the globe will run out of fossil fuel have been flow since the 1950s , when Shell geologist M. King Hubbert created a mathematical model showing what would happen to United States domestic oil production in the come year . Known as theHubbert Curve , it shows how initial production in a fresh fossil oil subject lift acutely , then reaches a tableland , and finally heads into a unwavering decay . Hubbert predicted U.S. oil production would top out in 1969 . He was blackguard , until vegetable oil production actually did peak in 1970 , and then went into a long descent . Hubbert ’s theory makes sense , because fossil fuel are non - renewable and finite in amount .
Hubbert used substantial numbers and profound , ineluctable logic . However , other factors amount into play when stress to predict the death of fogey fuel supply .
While the earth is using more fuel machines , processes usingfossil fuelsare becoming more efficient . The baseline blast on the efficiency front is in vehicles . When the fossil oil crisis hit in the 1970s , auto give out from an average of 10 miles per gal to more than 17 miles per gallon or more in less than a decade . The variety was spurred on , most expert believe , by the rise in fuel price .
The more late spike in fuel prices has also spurred alteration . Hybridand galvanising vehicles are more prevailing on the road . big vehicle , like the Hummer and other gasoline guzzlers , are less a part of American lifestyle than before .
This fault in lifestyle will also have an result on when fossil fuel will run out . AAA research has shown that Americans are driving shorter distance than in the past , with few trip . While this is ascribe mainly to risinggas cost , the net effect is to expend less fuel and drop less money , thereby extending dwindle down taciturnity . These same cost - economise measures apply to electrical energy , spicy water and nursing home warming . Indeed , entire municipalities , not just individual sept , are bring through money by using less energy .
In addition to using less fossil fuel , people are turn to high technology to shave the amount of fuel they use . One common example is the fluorescent light medulla . The savings are small , but the produce number of user is probable to have an impression on electricity usage , lessen the amount of fossil fuels used to raise the necessary wattage . Larger organization , like university and swelled company , are using high - tech package to control building organisation like lighting and heat to pare a few dollars of total fuel bill here and there .
Finally , those same high cost have spur enquiry into novel source of fossil fuel , like oil shale , as well as alternative fuels like solar , wind and biodiesel .
What the future will hold for fossil fuels is incertain . That the supply will run out is almost certain , but when it will happen – and the effect it has on society – remains only speculation .
