DNA has beena key disputein the pretrial phase ofChris Watts‘ prosecution forthe alleged murders of his wife and two young daughters. But an expert tells PEOPLE that it is unlikely to prove his guilt or innocence on its own.

Dr. Phil Danielson, a professor at the University of Denver’s Department of Biological Sciences who specializes in DNA collection and analysis, says that while it may hold a pop culture-fueled importance in the minds of outside observers, the reality is much hazier in a homicide case like that ofShanann Wattsand childrenBella and Celeste, her kids with husband Chris.

Since 33-year-old Chris was taken into custody, much of the legal maneuveringhas centered around DNA: requests for Chris to give up samples of his own, requests to have samples of it collected in a certain way from the necks of his daughters and so on.

Frederick Police

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In this view, the DNA on the bodies of Bella and Celeste will either corroborate or debunk the most startling part of the investigation:Chris’ alleged confession to policethat he strangled Shanann, 34, afterwatching her strangle Celestein apparent revenge when he told her he wanted to separate afternearly six years of marriage.

According to this confession, as described in an arrest affidavit, he then loaded all three bodies into his truck and stashed them for several days before coming clean to investigators, who had discovered he was allegedlyhaving an affair with a co-worker.

Danielson explains that DNA from Bella and Celeste will not be a decisive factor in confirming what really happened.

“It’s going to be very difficult based on DNA alone to suggest whether or not Mr. Watts strangled his daughters,” he says.

Chris and Shanann Watts.Shanann Watts /Facebook

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What is certain, he says, is that being submerged in oil only makes DNA retrieval more difficult — but it doesn’t destroy DNA as the two do not mix well.

In fact, in the long term, being buried in the ground is more risky as it exposes DNA to bacteria while oil is “relatively sterile.”

Danielson says the temperature of the oil may be another factor — and it’s unclear how hot the crude was that covered the Watts girls — but oil “in and of itself is not going to guarantee that you’re not going to get any DNA evidence.”

He says that any DNA involved in the case will be trace DNA, also known to the layperson as touch DNA. It can be detected in even minuscule quantities and easily be passed from person to person in ways both direct (via skin to skin contact) or indirect, such as via a surface someone else has touched or between pieces of clothing two people wear when they are washed together, Danielson says.

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“If he [Chris] had been the ex-husband who lived in New England and never saw his daughters and he came out one time to Colorado … and suddenly they’re dead and his DNA is on them, the DNA would be more dispositive or more useful in that kind of case,” Danielson tells PEOPLE.

“[It’s] certainly not going to be the smoking gun,” he says.

Weld County Sheriff’s Office

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One might argue the Watts daughters could have touched a used tissue of their father’s and then touched themselves, Danielson says. Trace DNA moves about so easily, that could explain how evidence of him ended up on them.

What their dueling experts are likely to differ on is not the science behind DNA analysis but the interpretation of any DNA that is found. Given the different possible explanations, the goal will be advancing an explanation that isn’t just possible but probable.

source: people.com