Ah , another day , another too optimistic tech deadline . Tesla CEO Elon Musk , acertified veteranin this sports stadium , haspromisedthe public fully - sovereign Teslas are just around the quoin dating back to 2014 but has so far had to eat his dejeuner . Rather than ease up on those lofty expected value , thetroll king of Twitterdecided to double down with a new prediction : Tesla will launch commercial-grade robotaxis by 2024 !
Musk made the foretelling during Tesla ’s Q1 earnings call this hebdomad where he said Tesla ’s ferment on a , “ dedicated robotaxi that is extremely optimized for self-direction . ” That optimization , consort to Musk , means the purported vehicle would not want a steering roulette wheel or gas and Pteridium aquilinum pedals since there ’s no human driver present tense . Musk claimed Tesla is developing the vehicles to , “ reach the down in full see cost per sea mile or cost per kilometer . ” The company aspires to hit volume production by 2024 .
“ That really will be a monumental gadget driver of Tesla ’s growth , ” Musk said .
Tesla co-founder and CEO Elon Musk stands in front of the shattered windows of the newly unveiled all-electric battery-powered Tesla’s CybertruckPhoto: Frederic J. Brown (Getty Images)
The key Son there , of course , is “ aspire . ” As anyone watching the autonomous vehicle blank over the past decade know , moving a fomite out of a test track and onto public road requires stringent examination , check processes , regulatory assurances , payload of money , and , maybe most significantly , time . Hell , just figure out with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to make out the necessary bureaucratic paperwork to get Ab cab on public roads could cut crucial week and calendar month out of the company ’s less than 24 calendar month ego - imposed deadline . Even the U.S Department of Defense , which has access to hundred of billions of dollar in support and some of the Carry Nation ’s most forward-looking engineering science , hasstruggledto rapidly deploy sovereign vehicles . Those restriction apparently do n’t apply to Tesla .
Either room you slice it Tesla ’s 2024 goal seems improbable , though notably less unlikely than it would have if Musk had announced it several months ago . Just last month , the NHTSAupdatedits prophylactic principle to no longer require manual driving controls for autonomous vehicles to authorise crash test banner . That clears the path for self-governing vehicles to lock without a driver ’s posterior , steering wheel , and an concomitant steering pillar , or other fitting intend with meat drivers in mind .
It ’s deserving noting though that the NHTSA ’s Modern rules apply to what they call “ Automated Driving Systems , ” which encompass systems with Level 3 , 4 , or 5driving automation systems . Tesla ’s commercial vehicle are currently onlycapableof stratum 2 autonomy . Tesla also trails behind the competition when it comes to designing autonomous first robotaxis . Waymo , Alphabet ’s autonomous fomite class , announcedlate last year its own in ontogenesis drive hailing Ab that would potentially ship without pedal point , or steerage wheel . Rather than provide a deadline , Waymo opted to vaguely say it would arrive “ in the age to issue forth . ” Even Mercedez - Benz , not exactly known for its commitment to driverless vehicle , alreadybeatTesla to point 3 hands - spare self-reliance . In China , meanwhile , Baidu has beenchargingcustomers for autonomous rides around part of Beijing since last summertime .
Ambitious timeline, or meaningless marriage?
This would n’t be the first time Musk immensely lowball a deadline or grossly oversold a product . Back in 2019 , MusktoldTesla owners he was confident their existing vehicles could be advance to fully ego - drive by 2020 . Then there ’s the much vaunted Tesla Cybertruck which was hypothesise to bereadyfor legal transfer month ago . But do n’t worry those of you who put down adeposit , Musk , during his Q1 said the company “ remains on track to get together volume production of the Cybertruck next year . ”
Other times , as was the case with the company ’s recent humanoid “ Tesla bot ” reveal last yr , Musk stepped away from firm deadline and demos and optedinsteadto simply bank on a spandex clad dancing dude .
At the same time , at least in terms of stock execution , no one really seems to give a shit whether these deadline ever actually manifest . This calendar week Teslareported$18.86 billion in revenue , marking an 87 % step-up since last twelvemonth . Those bonkers earnings come from a still prevalent ball-shaped chipshortagethat has forced the earth ’s large automakers to implement hefty output cuts .
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